Predictive Policing

Request Number: FOI/15568

Category: Incident and Crime Statistics - Arrests

Subject: Predictive Policing

Request and Answer: 
Request
I’m currently producing a scoping document/report around Predictive Policing, looking at how and if it is currently used within UK Police Forces?

I will be looking at how Police Forces currently do this (if so), do they use PND/Niche/Qlik and analytical methods e.g. crime pattern analysis, etc.

Would this then be more ADHOC, in response to a new crime pattern identified would further predictive work be carried out to assist with staffing particular hotspots or is it utilised for resourcing already?

If the force does not currently use Predictive Policing methods at present is there a reason why? E.g. can be interpreted as discriminatory, resourcing, etc.

I wouldn’t need specific information in relation to cases/crimes I’m just looking into whether Predictive Policing is utilised within UK Police Forces currently.

Clarification requested:
Could you please define your use of the phrase predictive policing in this context?

Clarification received:
Thank you for contacting me. I am defining Predictive Policing as follows:

Predictive Policing is a proactive method of policing where analysts and or police officers, will look at large historic (or recent if there are trends in crime occurring) datasets and use analytical techniques to deploy resources, target individuals more likely to commit or be victims of crime.

Predictive Policing is not used to replace traditional policing methods, instead it enriches other methods of policing e.g. reactive policing, intelligence-led policing, hot spot analysis, etc. 

Predictive Policing is different to Artificial Intelligence (AI) due to AI being completely autonomous and replicating the human thought process, whereas predictive analysis relies on human interaction with the data provided by the predictive software. Human interaction with this data would include, querying the data, identifying key patterns/trends and testing the assumptions made by the data output.
Predictive Policing then requires decision making based on the findings within the data to establish the best way to manage the information identified following the analysis detailed above.

Answer
Your request for information has now been considered. In respect of Section 1(1)(a) of the Act we can confirm that the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) does not hold information in relation to your requests. Enquiries made in relation to your request failed to locate any records or documents relevant to your request based on the information you have provided. 

We can confirm that PSNI analysts do not use predictive software as per the definition outlined in the request above.

Accordingly, we have determined that the Police Service of Northern Ireland does not hold the information to which you seek access.